希拉里何去何从？—《时代》

What Does Hillary Want?

希拉里何去何从？

Among Clinton's potential consolation prizes: the veep slot and absolution of her campaign debt.

希拉里的“安慰奖”：副总统的交椅还是竞选债务的免除？

A graceful exit is never easy in a business as fraught with ego and ambition as presidential politics. Which is why in recent days, quiet calls have started going out to key supporters of Hillary Clinton who are showing signs of wanting to jump ship. Clinton's emissaries point out that she is no longer attacking Barack Obama, and they promise she won't start again. Allow her to ride out the last few primaries, they argue, and she won't do anything to make it difficult for her longtime allies to switch their allegiances when the time comes.

在有如总统选举一般充满自我和野心的政治漩涡里，要全身而退并非易事。这也是为什么近日来，希拉里的那些想要转换门庭的重要支持者们已经开始在私下进行沟通。希拉里的喉舌们表示，希拉里不会再攻击奥巴马。他们还许诺希拉里不会卷土重来，并希望能让希拉里平稳度过最后几场初选，而她到时候也不会让她的长期合作伙伴为转换门庭而为难。

The latest round of calls was a tacit admission that while the battles aren't over, the war has been lost. It also raises the question, What will Clinton's terms of surrender turn out to be? Her husband, for one, seems to have a pretty clear idea what he thinks she should get as a consolation prize. In Bill Clinton's view, she has earned nothing short of an offer to be Obama's running mate, according to some who are close to the former President. Bill "is pushing real hard for this to happen," says a friend. Hillary is more opaque about what she might want, divulging little even to those who see and talk to her every day. "It's as plain as the nose on your face that this whole thing has shifted to a different mode," says a top Clinton strategist. "But I don't know what she wants. I don't know what she's thinking."

战斗尚未结束，战争却败局已定。最近一轮的私下沟通已经是被默许了的。问题是，希拉里将为自己的退出作何解释？克林顿的心里倒是对希拉里应该得到什么作为“安慰奖”很有数。据克林顿身边的人讲，克林顿认为希拉里已经完全具备做奥巴马副手的条件了。克林顿的一位朋友表示，克林顿“正在不遗余力地促成这件事。”希拉里对她下一步的打算却没那么明确，甚至对她身边的工作人员也很少谈及。“工作重点已经完全转向另一方面了，这是明摆着的，”一位希拉里的重要顾问说，“但我不知道她想要什么，也不清楚她在想什么。”

Even if Clinton is not on the ticket, the list of things she might want could range from a tangible move like help in paying off some of her campaign debt to a symbolic gesture of homage at the Democratic National Convention. Obama's team knows that Clinton and her crew above all are likely to want respect to be paid for their efforts; beyond that, it is unclear what the tab will be. "There have been no discussions between the campaigns," says chief strategist David Axelrod. "There's been no back-channel negotiations. We're respectful of her and her right to fight on." But they know the time is rapidly approaching when the two campaigns are going to have to begin peace talks. And they anticipate, given everything they have learned about the Clintons, that the negotiations won't be easy. "We're expecting sort of the worst here," says a top Obama adviser.

即使希拉里上不了奥巴马的船，她可以争取的还有很多，从实际一点的：帮她还掉一些竞选债务，到面子上的：在民主党全国代表大会上的些许敬意。奥巴马阵营晓得希拉里和她的团队首先需要的是对他们做的努力的尊重；除此之外，其他的还不清楚。“选战双方没有为此接触，”首席顾问戴维.艾斯罗德说，“不存在任何私下的谈判。我们尊重她和她继续战斗的而权利。”但奥巴马的团队明白两方“和谈”的日子不远了。并且根据他们所了解的希拉里，他们预期“和谈”不会简单。“我们在做最坏的打算，”奥巴马的一位重要顾问说。

How bad could it be? Or put another way, how much leverage does Clinton have? Certainly more than she did a month ago. Though she is unlikely to catch Obama in delegates, her lopsided victories in Kentucky and West Virginia have helped her narrow his lead in the popular-vote count to a virtual tie. She may even finish the primary season with more votes, if you count those from the disputed primaries in Michigan and Florida. That gives her bragging rights for the No. 2 spot or for other demands. "This is about making her pile of chips bigger so she can use them to bargain with when the voting is done," says a longtime backer, who also believes she is making a play for a place on the ticket.

究竟会有多困难呢？换句话说，希拉里手中还有多少谈判的筹码呢？事实上，比一个月前要多。虽然她不能在超级代表的票数上赶上奥巴马，但是在肯塔基州和西弗吉尼亚州的明显优势帮助她在普选票数上与他打成平手。她甚至可能在预选结束的时候得到较多的选票，如果你把密歇根州和佛罗里达州有争议的票算进去的话。这就让她拥有争取副总统位子或其他要求的值得炫耀的资本。“这让她的筹码变大，也就可以在投票结束时用以讨价还价。”她的长期支持者说，这位支持者相信希拉里将进入下一代美国领导团队。

Some of Clinton's own strategists are doubtful that Obama will offer to make her his running mate — in no small part because that would mean bringing Bill aboard. Her presence on the ticket would also undercut Obama's core message of change and his promise of a new brand of politics. However, advisers say that in the interest of unifying the party, there may well be a good argument for tapping one of the Clintons' high-profile supporters, such as Indiana Senator Evan Bayh or Ohio governor Ted Strickland.

然而，希拉里的一些顾问们却质疑奥巴马会否让她做竞选伙伴——即使是小角色，因为那样意味着克林顿也将介入。希拉里的加入也会削弱奥巴马的追求“变革”的形象以及他对建立新的政治文化的承诺。另一方面，顾问们表示为了团结民主党的力量，让希拉里的重要支持者，如印第安纳州参议员伊万.贝伊和俄亥俄州州长泰德.斯蒂克兰德，加入奥巴马团队也未尝不可。

But neither of them would give Obama an automatic entrée to crucial voter groups that Clinton won — women, Latinos, older voters, blue-collar whites — and that in many key states have appeared to be beyond his reach. "There is still a lot of enthusiasm and support out there for her," says a leader of a women's activist organization. "It is a valid question where that goes after June 3" — the date of the last Democratic primaries. In that regard, exit polls from her lopsided win over Obama in Kentucky pointed in an ominous direction: only a third of those who voted for her said they would support Obama over John McCain in the fall. By comparison, 71% of Obama voters said they would vote for her if their candidate did not win the nomination. Some of Clinton's women supporters are angry at what they see as sexist treatment of their candidate. A newly formed political-action committee calling itself WomenCount claimed it had raised $230,000 in four days after running full-page newspaper ads across the country that proclaimed, "Not so fast ... Hillary's voice is OUR voice, and she's speaking for all of us."

但是，无论是希拉里还是其支持者的加入，均无法保证奥巴马会自动赢得希拉里主要支持者——妇女、拉美裔移民、老年人和白种蓝领工人——的芳心以及一些明显不支持他的关键的州。“现在希拉里依然有很多热情的支持者，”一位女权运动组织领袖称。“六月三号之后这些选票的去向仍是个问题。”——六月三号是民主党最后一场初选的日子。如此说来，让希拉里显胜的肯塔基州的选票反而对奥巴马不利：投希拉里票的选民中只有三分之一的人表示会在大选中支持奥巴马而非麦凯恩。相比之下，71%的奥巴马支持者表示如果他在提名战中败选，他们会转投希拉里一票。希拉里的一些女性支持者对选战中的性别歧视感到不满。一个叫做“半边天”的新政治组织声称她们在四天内筹集了23万美元。为筹款在全国范围的发行的整版报纸广告称：“事情没这么快结束…希拉里代表着我们，她为所有妇女们说话。”

Given that sentiment, how Obama treats Clinton — and vice versa — is likely to have as much impact on any final settlement between the camps as the final vote tallies. Jesse Jackson, who knows a thing or two about waging a long and bitter primary battle — and about reconciling when it is over — said recently, "The winner really needs the loser." But then he added that unless the loser gets over the "pain" of coming in second, the party is doomed. Nothing is more likely to bring the loser's supporters aboard than seeing their candidate throw herself wholeheartedly behind the winner. On the other hand, when the postprimary relationship doesn't gel — Democrats remember how excruciating it was to see Jimmy Carter practically chasing Ted Kennedy across the stage to grab his hand at the 1980 convention in New York City — it can be fatal.

有鉴于此，奥巴马之前怎么对付希拉里——反之亦然——必然会对两派最后如何和解以及选票上产生影响。杰西.杰克逊，一位了解如何发动持久激烈初选选战——以及初选结束后如何和解——的人，最近表示：“胜方必须团结败方。”但是同时他还认为如果失败一方不能接受做“第二把手”的痛苦，那这个党就完了。没有什么比看到他们的候选人全心全意地辅佐胜者更能让失败者的选民们继续支持这个党的了。换句话说，当初选后的团结不能达成——民主党对1980年在纽约举行的全国代表大会上的一幕记忆犹新：吉米.卡特几乎是追过了整个舞台才跟肯尼迪握上手——那才是要命的事情。

That message has been received by Obama. He stopped short of claiming the nomination after the Oregon primary on May 20. In his speech that night in Des Moines, Iowa, he praised Clinton's "courage and her commitment" and added, "Some may see the millions and millions of votes cast for each of us as evidence that our party is divided. But I see it as proof we have never been more ... united." When he praised Clinton for helping to shatter barriers in politics that had long held women back, he was using phrases that were very close to those that had been suggested by several Clinton-camp followers. One measure of Obama's desire for peace will be whether he ignores objections from some of his most stalwart backers and helps Clinton pay off her $20 million-plus campaign debt, either by headlining events on her behalf or by appealing to his donors to help her. There is an urgency to this task: she has only until late August to raise the cash from donors to repay herself more than $11 million she has personally loaned her campaign.

奥巴马对此一清二楚。在五月二十日俄勒冈州初选结束后，他停止了对希拉里的攻击。二十日当晚，在爱荷华州得梅因市的讲话中，奥巴马赞扬了希拉里的“勇气和决心”，并表示“我和她都得到了数百万张选票，有些人会因此认为民主党分裂了。但我认为这恰恰证明我们从没有…这样团结一心。”当他称赞希拉里为打破妇女参政的障碍所做的贡献时，他使用的词语非常接近希拉里阵营的智囊们建议中的词。奥巴马求和之心的表现之一在于他是否能够力排众议帮助希拉里偿付两千万美元的竞选债务，其方式包括以希拉里的名义举办活动或者请求他自己的捐款人帮助希拉里。此项任务时间紧迫：希拉里只有截至八月底的时间筹集款项归还以个人名义借来的一千一百万美元竞选资金。

Perhaps the knottiest question in the end will be this: If the vice presidency is not in Clinton's future, what role will she be permitted to play at the convention? She has earned by effort alone a chance to speak there. Several party officials believe she is likely to insist that her name be placed in nomination on the first ballot, opening up all the divisions once again. Whether and how Clinton and Obama can work their way through the terms of surrender will tell voters a lot about both of them. And it could help determine whether a Democrat is elected in November.

也许最终最棘手的问题是：如果希拉里不能做奥巴马的副手，她在全国代表大会上的角色将如何定位？她已经为自己赢得了在会上发言的机会。数位民主党官员相信，她将坚持自己的名字出现在第一轮提名投票中，这会又一次导致很多分歧。希拉里和奥巴马能否以及如何达成和解，这将让选民们更深刻的了解两人。这也关系到美国大选中民主党能否最终胜选。

—     with reporting by Michael Duffy and Michael Weisskopf/Washington

—     与麦克.达菲与麦克.凯斯科夫，华盛顿联合报道